October 04, 2007

Saimoe update 10/4

As requested, updated brackets here and here.

No match today - they're running meganekko and bokukko exhibitions. ("Bokkuko"? First time I've seen that, but apparently it refers to girls who use "boku" to refer to themselves - i.e. a little tomboyish but not so much that they'd use "ore" like some kind of yankee.) Not terribly interested in them - glasses are not my fetish, and the only one of the "boku" crowd I really like is Ryoko from Nadeisco. If you want to play, Ando from the Animesuki forums posted the lists here.

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October 03, 2007

Saimoe, round 3 analysis

So we're down to 32! (Finally.) And we've already had two matches worthy of a final. So how's the remaining lineup?

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Saimoe update 10/3

No real surprises for the final day of the second round. Rika won over virtually no protest from the other votes (and hardly anybody voted for Mats, boo!), while Eri limped into first over little support for Takano.

I'll do third-round match-ups later. Tomorrow's off, then we start third-round voting.
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October 02, 2007

Saimoe update 10/2

You know, every so often I sit down and think, "Man, wasn't yesterday's match kind of crappy? Why don't I just shut this thing down and await the final eight or something?" Then we get a match like yesterday and I remember why I enjoy this so much. Sure, Mion trampled all over her opposition, but Louise managed to take down the last, best hope of Kanon, Mai... by two votes. Two votes, that's all. All it would have taken to make it come out the other way would be asking a couple of buddies to spend a minute pecking at their keyboard. (Not that I object much to the way it came out. Okay, sure, I probably would vote Mai, but I just got a bunch of Zero in the mail...)

Last day of round 2 voting, and whew, ain't it about time. G2-4 won't be really contested - Rika from Higurashi is just too far in front of the other two - but I'll go ahead and put in a vote for Matsuri, who is definitely underappreciated for the amazing amount of compressed moe at her disposal. (But not enough to stop Rika, who is moe and Bill Murray at the same time. Neat!)

H2-4 isn't as clear-cut. Eri from School Rumble has a voting advantage (and the twin-tail and tsundere advantage, for that matter). On the other hand, Takano is within striking distance, apparently much more of a character in Higurashi, and has a series halo from the other round in Rika. Add to that School Rumble's waning popularity (Eri's all that's left) and we could easily have an upset.
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October 01, 2007

Saimoe update 10/1

Yesterday went completely as expected. A combined winning vote for the Aria team was split almost evenly between two characters, putting Sayuri out front, while Alicia won the other round. Vote totals back down, unsurprisingly - after the day before yesterday, it wasn't really worth showing up for.

G2-3 will probably go to Mion, though it's tough to say - she doesn't have a huge vote advantage over Ayane, though Nagasarete hasn't exactly been delivering huge piles of votes and I'd just as soon Ayane got hit by a bus anyway. Gretel from Akazukin is close enough to be within striking distance too, I suppose. It'd be nice to see Mion vs. Rika for the round 3 match, though...

Much better action over in H2-3. Ringo has a series halo from the other round, sure, but she's still dead meat against Mai from Kanon on one side and Louise from Zero on the other. Louise has the vote advantage and the freshness advantage, though the "I'm a complete bitch" advantage may work against her somewhat. Mai's one of the more popular Kanon characters, but Kanon just isn't delivering the votes lately - I have to throw this one to Louise.
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September 30, 2007

Saimoe update 9/30

Well, good god. Calling yesterday's voting "heavy" doesn't do it justice - more like "unprecedented". Only one round last year had this kind of voting volume, and it was the final.

Suigintou pulled ahead of Fate, in a match that remained neck and neck until the last hour of voting; obviously a successful push for votes at the last minute succeeded. And in the other round, in a completely unexpected upset, Eruru inched just in front of Ayu for a 37-vote victory, with both pulling in more than 1100 votes. Nobody has to go home feeling bad, as it were - only Kagami pulled in similar vote totals to Ayu in this round, and nobody was even in Fate's neighborhood except Suigintou. But it's obvious that there are relatively more observers than we thought, who were willing to come in on a hotly-contested round; if we see a similar effect for the big rounds in the future, it'll be hard indeed to predict winners based on past performance. (But exciting!)

Also makes me glad I have Utawarerumono sitting on the desk waiting to be watched. Obviously there's some moe in there I have not yet discovered...

After yesterday's elimination of Ayu, Sayuri should have a relatively easy ride in G2-2. Up against two Aria characters, she has a voting advantage and a split advantage; making it even worse is that there's no obvious winner between Akari or Alice, so the Aria vote is probably going to split fairly evenly. That would make Sayuri the only character from Kanon to advance to the third round (though Mai is up tomorrow, she's also up against Louise...)

The factors that will make Aria characters lose G2-2 will probably make them win H2-2. Sure, Misaki and Shamal aren't the formidable competition that Sayuri is. But instead of splitting the Aria vote, which already has an advantage, Alicia will get the synergy from both of the competitors in the other round. Of course, as the winner's up against Suigintou anyway, maybe taking an early exit in this round is the way to go.
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September 29, 2007

Saimoe update 9/29

Something of an upset yesterday as Ayumu from Hayate, "Hamster Girl", pulls just past Teana from Strikers for victory. Meanwhile, Tsukasa from Lucky Star practically lapped the field over Aika from Aria. I'm a bit surprised at the strength of the hamster vote. We'll just have to see how things unfold - if she gets lucky and has more exposure in future episodes, she even has a chance against Shinku.

Well, today's a big voting day. It says something that a match with Ayu from Kanon in it can be considered down-card, but that's more a reflection of her weak opposition than anything else. You can't totally write off Eruru - she did quite well last year - but it's not enough to stop Ayu. Nor is anybody going to bother trying for an upset when the winner is likely to take on Sayuri from Kanon in the next round anyway - easier to let the natural sororicide knock out one, then come in for the block final.

Of course, it's also a reflection of the massive voting expected in H2-1. People have been looking for this one since the brackets were drawn up. Fate T. Harlaown (gawd, we have to do something about the spelling of that last name) versus Suigintou, and it says a lot that Satoko from Higurashi isn't even a possibility for the win. This is, despite my own leanings, a genuinely tough call. Suigintou started off as one of those laughing-evil characters who enjoyed pointless sadism for no real reason and turned into an extremely sympathetic character (helped along by running into a girl who was significantly more emo than she ever was!) And unlike most of the other Rozen characters, who were getting a little stale with no appearance since Traumend, the OAV was all Suigintou all the time, so her fandom is probably as high as it's ever going to get.

Fate, on the other hand, is a bit less moe than her record highs. She spent a lot of Strikers in a background role, playing den mother to the new recruits and keeping Nanoha from going too overboard. She did, at the end, get to shine on her own, though it must be said that she won too quickly and easily. (Or maybe it's just that she had broken out the return to her old outfit style - this time with the attributes to fill it out, yay! - and it would have been nice to see more of it?) Then again, if Rozen characters are still getting their moe cues from a season ago, then Fate has a huge advantage from A's, where she was oh so very moe.

No call for this match. Maximum effort from both sides, of course, and we can expect to see plenty of fake voting involved. I don't expect any tactical voting per se, simply because there's no real advantage to other parties either way - no matter who wins, they're going to be a tough competitor, and knocking out either character would likely galvanize fans that supported her, leading to even stronger performances out of Hayate/Nanoha or Shinku/Suiseiseki. The telling factor may be the Satoko supporters (yes, there are some), because it's difficult to tell whose base they'd tend to draw from more. At any rate, I'd be very surprised if we didn't have the heaviest voting day of round two...
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September 28, 2007

Saimoe update 9/28

One surprise and a nice turnout yesterday, with voting in the more popular round hitting the 2k mark again. Guess it just took a competition to bring out the voters. Tamao puts in a 100-vote victory over Henrietta, with poor Saki bringing up the rear pretty closely, showing that the Strawberry Panic forces still have a bit of fight left in them. San put in a decisive victory over Souseiseki, with Miyuki from Lucky Star drawing only token amounts of votes. Good to see that the moe mermaid is as popular as the annoying fake idol mermaid, it is.

I'm afraid that I've gone from being pro-Nanoha to a Nanoha pro, so I'm not really neutral in E2-4. But it should be a good match anyway. Ayumu, otherwise known as Nom-Nom-tan, girl of the bottomless stomach, actually had a fun episode last week. She's nice enough as a "norm" in a show full of weirdos, otaku, and otaku weirdos, but at the same time, she's just not a real rival for Nagi. Teana is almost in the same boat - an almost-normal person stuck in the middle of a whole gang of unique and powerful juggernauts - but her final combat sequence let her really show her stuff. A little too young and a little too emo for my tastes (but then, I'm a big fan of Subaru, who is a bit younger if less emo.) I'd like to say that this is a good proxy vote for the eventual outcome of Fate vs. Suigintou this weekend - if the Strikers fans can't overcome a second banana from Hayate with one of their main characters, then an all-out effort by the Rozen team isn't within their grasp.

F2-4 isn't in contention, which removes the chance for Shuffle synergy from today's voting. Neither Kaede's insanity or Aika's mild tsun are going to be enough to make Tsukasa and her cell phone break a sweat. I don't think Tsukasa has what it takes to go all the way - she's definitely behind her sister and Konata for popularity, and later in the series a lot of her innocent-outsider schtick is hijacked by Yutaka, who did a better job of it too. But she's still more moe than anyone else in the round, and a Tsukasa-San match would be excellent indeed.
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Good news, cont.

My upcoming subtitling projects are going well so far. Can't share a whole lot of details, but I've been explicitly authorized to say that (a) they are the first two seasons of Nanoha, and the first season of Zero no Tsukaima, and (b) yes, despite the recent news about Geneon, they're really being worked on and really haven't been canceled. You may commence rejoicing.

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Sayonara, Sayonara Zetsubou Sensei

Saw the seventh episode of this show last night. First five were kind of spotty with some areas of brilliance; sixth was one big joke, but it was at least an entertaining one. The seventh one took a lame concept and proceeded to hammer at it for fifteen minutes (and, to put it bluntly, all the paper-doll animation didn't help. Hayate no Gotoku omake, sure, you can do that there. Main feature, no!)

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September 27, 2007

Saimoe update 9/27

Yech. Voters stayed home in droves yesterday. Not only were there first-round matches with higher vote totals, there were first-round competitors with higher vote totals than these combined matches. Takako wins out over Ginga by a hundred votes, virtually guaranteeing Shinku victory in the third round, while Suiseiseki still turned out 888 voters in a romp over Asuna.

I think Steven's on to something with the voter fatigue. The real question is how it will affect the heavyweight matches, so to speak. Are people just not bothering voting through the chaff, since most of them will be reaped out of the competition? Or are they just not voting at all, and a smaller swing vote might do it? (Or is it just the Strikers fans that have given up, now that there's no more hope of a romantic Fate/Nanoha scene in this season?)

I hope it doesn't continue on to today, because these are generally good matches. There's no winner to pick between Saki from Hayate, Henrietta from Zero, and Tamao from Strawberry Panic; only 29 votes separates the entire field's first-round take. I happen to favor Saki a little, but part of that is pure maidery (and clumsy maid at that... and she disapproves of porn... but she does not kick ass like Mahoro, more's the pity.) Henrietta's cute but not enough of a character in the first season (and too much of a friggin' idiot to be allowed to run a kingdom, if you ask me) for her to get my support. On the other hand, she's got plenty of screen time in the new season, so it may be enough to put her over the top.

The other match isn't quite as open as a three-way free-for-all, but Souseiseki versus San from Seto no Hanayome is a damned fine match. Sou's moe credentials have always been suspect from my point of view - she's nominally female, okay, but you wouldn't have any way to tell if they called her something different. (No, seriously, I get the feeling that if I'd labeled them "brother and sister" instead of "sisters" in the subtitles, many people would have been fooled.) San is a very unusual sort of moe herself... think Aoi from AYA, but instead of being quietly determined, San is a firebomb with a lit fuse. ("You can't marry my fiance!" is almost cliche, but most characters don't follow it with "and I'll kill you all to stop it!")

No telling as far as who'll win it. Tactically speaking, the Rozen crowd may not show up to contest Sou's match purely out of support for sister Sui - a Sou vs. Sui match is exactly the sort of situation that would make Sui-assassination likely. A similar situation happened in 2005, with Suiseiseki getting bounced by Shinku in the Group B final and Shinku going on to take third, while Sou took second. And Miyuki is a wild card - though the thousand-vote Lucky Star backing hasn't really held her up, if the voting is really low, it might be enough to push her in front (and would virtually guarantee Suiseiseki versus Tsukasa for the block final.)
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September 26, 2007

Saimoe update 9/26

Results came out more or less as expected, with Shinku winning over Nodoka and Aruru taking her round. Definitely the weakest day of the second round as far as personal excitement.

E2-2 pits Ginga from Strikers and Takako from Otoboku against each other, with Shimako from Marimite bringing up the rear. Ginga, for all that she wasn't a major character, scored pretty well with Strikers fans, as a prettier and less tomboyish version of her kid sister Subaru. Can't really comment on the Otoboku contestant's moe, but her first-round vote total is enough to make it a race. However, yesterday's match featured a truly pathetic performance by Shion from the same show, so it's entirely possible that Takako's high votes were just a reflection of crappy opposition. A Ginga versus Shinku match would certainly be interesting, though...

Suiseiseki doesn't have the unbeatable vote totals that she did last year, but her opposition isn't up to her caliber. Asuna isn't bad, if you just have to have your violent twintailed tsundere from Akamatsu daily, but Negima fans can't possibly turn out in the kind of numbers needed to take on the Rozen Legion. Momoko, from Sumomo more mo's, is in even worse shape - characters failed to qualify out of the first prelim with fewer votes than she drew to take the first round. We can't even expect an assassination attempt on the reigning champ - it'd be pointless, given that the winner of F1 is going to have to take on sister Souseiseki or the even more formidably cute Tsukasa from Lucky Star anyway.
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September 25, 2007

Saimoe update 9/25

The second half of round 2 kicks off with... well, not really a bang, if a bit more than a whimper.

Shinku's very likely to carry E2-1. The Rozen vote has been turning out consistently, and the Negima vote hasn't, generally speaking. Even if Nodoka is possibly as moe as it's possible for a librarian to be, I don't think it's enough to make up for Negima's waning popularity in the poll. Nor have the Rozen crew been up to their usual tricks lately, so the chance of someone deciding to take revenge on Shinku is rather low. Shinku's popularity isn't that much less than Suiseiseki's, after all, and her chances of taking all of block E aren't too bad if she does well today. Should be close enough to be worth voting for, at any rate.

F2-1... it's a whole quarter-block of mediocrity, condensed into three winners. Aruru has the vote lead and a better shot at victory, though by all accounts she's not as moe as her sister Eruru. It's hard to care too much, really, since none of the three are going to be able to mount a credible challenge against Suiseiseki in round 3.
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September 24, 2007

Saimoe update 9/24

Vita barely holds off a late push by Matsuri and wins her round by a bare 18 votes, while the other round has yet another romp by Kagami, putting up over 1100 votes with no competition worth mentioning.

Halfway through the second round, so no round today. Breath-catchin' time.
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September 23, 2007

Ah, good news, good news

Just landed the Nanoha and Zero contracts. If I get any more work on the side, I'll need to pack in the new day job... But it's always fun to work on shows you like, so I ought to enjoy myself immensely.

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Post mortem: Potemayo

Sat down and finished the show out today. Overall very enjoyable, for a silly/cute series.

Good: Guchuko! God damn, cute little blobbo plus scythe/axe equals great moe indeed. I still want a Guchuko plushie. Pote's not too bad either - plenty cute on her own, lots of fun with her and Sunao and Mikan. Kyo/Guchuko played out well too.

Series got into some heavy-duty reminiscing at the end, which turned out fine in the long run - more characterization for Sunao and his bizarre dad was a good thing. I also liked Yasumi and Tomari, who did a good job of injecting some fun into the human side of the series.

Bad: Most of the other characters. Even Mikan can get on your nerves early on, and some of them start in a rut and never get out - the three classmates in the weird master/slave/gay onlooker triangle especially got on my nerves. (Most especially the green-haired girl, who has the most annoying voice I've encountered in years. Holy moly, it's like fingernails on a chalkboard!) They spend way too much time developing these losers when they could have Guchuko on the screen.

A success overall, though. Kept me interested to the end, in a kind of cute and lightweight way.

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Saimoe update 9/23

Wow, now that was unexpected. Miyako from Hidamari toasts both Makoto and Caro and comes away with the victory! Sorry, Caro, you were just going to go up against Nanoha anyway... In the other match, Rena powers past her two opponents easily, demonstrating that there are few problems in life that cannot be solved with a smile and a billhook.

The power of the series block vote is clearly not delivering in this second round. Everyone's totals are down a good bit, but even fairly popular characters have lost big chunks of their vote total. Of course, it's possible that there's a high correspondence between the people voting for one popular character and the people voting for another popular character. But there's clearly no show with a brainwashed legion of fans delivering huge vote totals every time.

Even though the last episode of Strikers aired, we're not quite done with them yet. Vita, who in her finale performance made it clear that she's been watching far too much Gaogaigar, goes up against Ai from Aria and Matsuri from Sola. After yesterday, I'm a little hesitant to write off one of the characters in there. Even so, it's a tough call. Ai's on the upper end of the voting range for the Aria crowd, but most of them were packed into later rounds that had lower vote totals period. It's hard to estimate Matsuri's voting strength, since there's so few Sola characters in the tournament. Vita has a big vote advantage if the Strikers fans show up to vote for her, but they really didn't for Caro yesterday either. Could go to any of the three.

That's not the case for D2-4. I might not expect 1300 votes, but Kagami ought to be able to win this one handily. Sure, it has another Hidamari character in there, as well as Mugi from Hitohira, but neither of those characters blew the doors off with their first-round vote total, while Kagami collapsed the whole darned barn with hers. I'm looking forward to the resulting Rena/Kagami showdown in round 3...
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September 22, 2007

Saimoe update 9/22

And in the end, there wasn't anything to be worried about. With the voting totals falling off some from yesterday's 2k figure, Nanoha and Hayate both win crushing victories. Nanoha took more votes than Chika and Vivio put together, and Hayate won even more votes (though not quite as much as Nanoha and Vivio combined).

Definitely some tourney fatigue setting in for the vote totals - either that, or people are getting consigned to the progress of the juggernauts. We'll see how it affects voting in the next few rounds.

Today's first match is yet more Kanon vs. Strikers action, with Miyako from Hidamari Sketch added in. Caro is much closer to the concept of a normal magical girl than most of the Strikers characters, who are generally much more hot-blooded; a good amount of her popularity comes from the writers having thrown her and her team-mate Elio together more or less from the start. (And how often do you get a character who receives a bust grope, not that she has one yet, and doesn't respond violently? It was almost refreshing, if a little corny...) On the other hand, Makoto is also cute in a kind of helpless way. Either one of them could win it, depending on people's reaction to yesterday's voting; if the Kanon crowd turns out for revenge in numbers, bringing down Caro wouldn't be too tough - but the Strikers voters have been turning out in the numbers needed to keep advancing their characters. And there's also a (better!) Kanon character in the other match...

Shiori versus Rena versus Yue? Wow, this is just a weird round, with completely different moe involved. Shiori, as one of the original sad girls in snow, has almost unparalleled sickly moe. Yue takes the lead as the head lolita in the round, though I'm afraid her philosophy won't help her much here - brains are not what the average Saimoe voter is looking for. (Hey, I like her, but I'd like her better ten years from now, right?) Rena's the violent yandere whose show is currently getting the "nice boat" treatment. Initial prediction isn't much more than "not Yue". If it came down to their individual voting total alone, Rena would have a good chance at it - but with Makoto in the other round, and blood in the eye of the Kanon fanbase, it could go the other way easily.
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September 21, 2007

Saimoe update 9/21

Big surprise in Hinagiku's round, as she lost by 29 votes to Luna. Yuuno put a much more commanding lead together against Barasuishou, with Miu back in third - at least that much I can be happy about. Early speculation is that the Nanoha faction struck first in both cases. Dunno if I'm convinced myself - Hina's vote total is in line with Nagi's from this round, and Luna's also below her round 1 vote total. Could just be that's the way the votes came out, though it's not like either of the winners are an easy opponent for anybody.

Tough going so far for Hayate, huh? Two huge vote-getters out already.

Going to be a string of Nanoha characters showing up over the next few days, but the best matches are coming up front. C2-2 might be tough for Nanoha. The last time Nanoha hit another Nanoha character head to head, Fate took the victory something like 900-600 (though there seemed to be something of a gentlemen's agreement to let the moe-in-A's Fate take a shot at the title that Nanoha won in 2005.) On the other hand, we know how a direct head-to-head competition between Nanoha and Vivio turns out... going beyond "you're gonna get befriended" all the way to "you're gonna get adopted". Vivio's cute, though the heterochromic stoplight eyeballs are still a little weird, and I think she just came in too late and too non-lingual to really take the match from Nanoha.

D2-2 is a Kanon fan's worst nightmare. Hayate all by her lonesome is probably a match for either Akiko (the original single mother whose jam we'd like to sample) or Kaori (kind of the weak sister of the Kanon crew, as far as moe goes.) But they would have given her a good run for her money, and there's always the possibility of a strong anti-Nanoha vote pushing one of them over the top. But with the Kanon vote split more or less equally, or even in favor of Akiko (who is just too busty to draw in the loli-voters), the chance of bringing Hayate down this round is small indeed. Hayate buttressed by Nanoha in the other round? Good night, that's all she wrote.

On the other hand, if they don't stop Nanoha now, she's got an excellent shot at the final eight - and practically every threat left in group C is also from Strikers, save Luna, and if Luna wins I will break something. D, on the other hand, has the looming Kagami at the end...
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September 20, 2007

Saimoe update 9/20

Nagi smashes the competition flat, coming in with just under a thousand votes. At the same time, CC unseats one of last year's semifinalists by a hundred votes, proving that men aren't lying when they say "there's just more to love". Mmm, pizza rolls indeed.

Two good bashes today. First up is a three-way, with idol Runa from Seto no Hanayome coming squarely up against the indomitable class president Hinagiku from Hayate, with some ninja girl Suzu from Nagasarete thrown in the mix. Suzu's out - she's a cute airhead, but totally outclassed here. Hinagiku has extensive moe credentials, but might suffer a bit from lack of exposure - while we've been watching Nagi and Isumi and Hayate get great episodes, the school characters have been on the back burner. On the other hand, I really, really don't like Luna's character - she's exactly the kind of tsundere I hate, violent towards the male lead for no reason and then a little attracted to him for the same no reason. Butt out and leave it to Nagasumi and San, you annoying mermaid... Hinagiku has an edge in the first-round voting, but it's all going to come down to turnout. Personally, hating Luna's guts only makes it easier to cast a revenge vote for Subaru... ;p

I don't have a preference for the second round, though, which pits Barasuishou, Miu from Strawberry Marshmallow, and Yuno from Hidamari up against each other. It's kind of a negative round for me. I can't make myself watch Yuno's show, for all the character seemed promising. I never liked Barasuishou's almost total lack of character, especially in a show where the other dolls had very strong character. But I'm happy when bad things happen to Miu too. Quite a conundrum... Bara's got a slight vote advantage, and Miu's far enough back that I expect her to lose, but I can't rule Yuno out of it. With even Tomoe pulling the numbers she did, though, I don't expect any Rozen characters to lose except to significant moe...
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